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March 31, 2007
The inventory of available homes has climbed almost 15% in the last 2 weeks, and escrows-in-process have dropped by 10%.
Since we are now into our "normal" buying and selling season, it is not surprising that more listings are coming on the market, but someone forgot to invite the buyers to come out of hiding! The decline in the total escrow number includes both closed sales and cancellations. I have noticed a much higher than average rate of properties coming "back on the market" due to buyers failing to qualify for their financing. With the recent tightening of lending standards and meltdown of the subprime mortgage market, fewer buyers are able to qualify for financing, so this may remain an issue for a while.
We now have a total of 294 listings available on the MLS with 59 properties currently in escrow. Based on the last 30 days of closings of only 40, the inventory level is now over 7 months, which typically favors buyers in negotiations.
Properties are still selling, but only if they are priced competively, easy to show on short notice, and well-staged to emphasize their best features.
Here are the highlights of the last 30 days : (includes Lake Forest 92630 zip code only):
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES:
Active - 148@ $789,650 average list ($396/sqft)
Range from $574,000 to $1,890,000
In Escrow - 31 @ $803,500 average list ($383/sqft)
Range from $579,000 to $2,500,000
Last 30 days Closed - 15 @ $686,600 ($372/sqft)
Range from $569,000 to $899,000
Taken off market (expired, cancelled or withdrawn) - 23
CONDOS :
Active - 146 @ $399,700 average list ($393/sqft)
Range from $249,500 to $575,000
In Escrow - 28 @ $422,000 average list ($368/sqft)
Range from $250,000 to $549,000
Last 30 days Closed- 25 @ $398,900 ($320/sqft)
Range from $250,000 to $530,000
Taken off market (expired, cancelled or withdrawn) - 21
February 9, 2007
We now have 233 listings available on the MLS with 58 properties currently in escrow.
With only 34 closings in January, we are still in a "BUYER'S MARKET" so sellers need to be able to either wait a long time for their perfect buyer, or become very aggressive with condition, staging and pricing.
Here are the highlights of the last 30 days : (includes Lake Forest 92630 zip code only):
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES:
Active - 107 @ $799,500 average list ($383/sqft)
Ranges from $595,000 to $2,500,000.
In Escrow - 28 @ $680,400 average list ($365/sqft)
Closed in January - 20 @ $707,600 ($407/sqft)
Range of closed sales from $545,000 to $1,249,000
Taken off market (expired, cancelled or withdrawn) - 35
CONDOS :
Active - 126 @ $402,200 average list ($387/sqft)
Ranges from $250,000 to $575,000
In Escrow - 30 @ $380,600 average list ($363/sqft)
Closed in January - 15 @ $392,600 ($333/sqft)
Range of closed sales from $279,00 to $465,000
Taken off market (expired, cancelled or withdrawn) - 23
There are some opportunities for buyers now, with a good selection of inventory. While there are still some sellers who don't have a true motivation to move, and will take them off the market to wait for a better time, there are many others who are very motivated and will take the first "reasonable" offer they get. With almost 25% of the for-sale homes currently vacant, I expect those owners will either reduce their price to sell them now, or find a tenant to help cover the expense!
November 9, 2006
This is the time of year when the not-very-serious sellers start taking their homes off the market for the holidays. We are starting to see that now, with the total inventory shrinking in the last month from 309 to 293 homes available. It's definitely a "BUYER'S MARKET" with approximately a 6 month supply of homes available. In the last 30 days, 55 homes and condos have closed escrow, which is a little better than the last few months, but still down almost 40% from an average of 90 per month for the prior 3 years.
Sellers are still having a hard time facing reality by reducing prices, and I'm seeing a lot of feeble attempts to generate buyer interest by offering vacations, cars and bonus commissions for buyer agents. The secret to selling is to clean it up, make it look inviting, make it easy to show, and PRICING it RIGHT from the beginning. (You never get a second chance to make a good first impression!)
The days of overpricing, and waiting for the market to catch up are behind us, and the buyers all know it!
Here are the highlights of the last 30 days : (includes Lake Forest 92630 zip code only):
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES:
Active - 159 @ $726,900 average list ($383/sqft)
Ranges from $564,000 to $1,679,000.
In Escrow - 33 @ $737,200 average list ($361/sqft)
Closed (10/8/ - 11/08) - 29 @ $733,500 ($373/sqft)
Range of closed sales from $495,000 to $910,000
Taken off market (expired, withdrawn or cancelled) - 45
CONDOS :
Active - 135 @ $397,200 average list ($390/sqft)
Ranges from $259,900 to $579,900
In Escrow - 28 @ $397,000 average list ($380/sqft)
Closed (10/8 -11/08) - 16 @ $400,700 ($365/sqft)
Taken off market (expired, withdrawn or cancelled) - 26
Lake Forest Market Update
September 26, 2006
The Lake Forest real estate market has shifted to a "BUYER'S MARKET" with more homes available, than buyers to buy them. In the last 30 days, only 49 homes and condos have closed escrow, down almost 50% from an average of 90 per month for the past 3 years.
There are currently 323 properties in the "Active" status in the MLS, and 81 in escrow. The properties in escrow seem to average about 6 weeks worth of activity, so they are selling at slightly less than 13 per week. At that rate, it will take roughly 6 months to sell them all. When the market reaches this level, it gives buyers an advantage in negotiations, because they know that if they can't get their price on a house, they have other choices available.
For sellers, who watched their neighbors sell quickly, and for record prices in the last few years, this is a difficult transition. Many sellers are still starting their asking prices at the highest level, (or above!) the comps, then having to adjust down. The days of overpricing, and waiting for the market to catch up are behind us, and the buyers all know it! Today, in order to sell a house, it needs to be in top condition, be decorated & furnished to look like a model, and be priced on the low side of the comps.
Here are the highlights of the last 30 days : (includes Lake Forest 92630 zip code only):
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES:
Active - 178 @ $769,400 average list ($388/sqft)
Ranges from $515,000 to $1,650,000.
In Escrow - 48 @ $765,200 average list ($382/sqft)
Closed (8/22-9/22) - 24 @770,000 ($391/sqft)
Taken off market (expired, withdrawn or cancelled) - 42
CONDOS :
Active - 145 @ $399,200 average list ($393/sqft)
Ranges from $256,900 to $579,900
In Escrow - 33 @ $391,000 average list ($367/sqft)
Closed (8/22-9/22) - 24 @ $411,000 ($364/sqft)
Taken off market (expired, withdrawn or cancelled) - 38
Lake Forest Market Update July 1, 2006
Half of the year is now over, but it will take another 2 weeks to collect all the numbers to report how far off we are from the prior year's first-half sales. (Some agents forget to report closed sales for a few days, so before I check those numbers, I will allow them some extra time!) At this point, I am going to guess that our year-to-date sales volume will be off by about 30%, but so far, the prices have not given up any significant ground.
The current inventory level is much higher than we have seen in the last 4 years. There are currently 185 single family homes on the active market, ranging in price from $565,000 to $1,420,000. The average time on the market is now 52 days for houses, and 60 days for condos. There are currently 135 condos on the market, ranging in price from $274,000 to $599,999.
Orange County Market Update - January 2006
The average price of all homes in Orange County has increased about 13.9% compared to the same period last year. For the month of November, 1947 single family homes (resale) closed in Orange County at an average price of $670,000, a 16.5% increase in price, but a 10.8% decrease in total number. There were 955 condos sold during that period, with an average price of $450,000, also up 16.9% from last year, and at the same volume. New homes continue to be more expensive with 601 closed sales at an average of $706,500 a decrease of 1.6%, but total units sold was up 42% from a year ago.
The details for sales in each zip code are listed around the middle of each month at the DataQuick News site. (If you would like more details about any specific cities or neighborhoods in Orange County, please contact me and I'll prepare custom reports just for you.)
I'm glad the "bubble talk" seems to be slowing down. My personal theory is that over the next 2 to 3 years, we will see interest rates gradually rise to around 7.5%, and the total volume of sales will slow. We won't see prices decline, though, because there won't be many homes on the market, and we will still have a shortage of homes. During the most recent 2 to 3 years, a lot of people (myself included) who didn't need to move chose to move because of the low interest rates and the strong appreciation. Now those people have settled in to the home that they hope to stay in for a very long time. I don't believe that prices will appreciate at the rate we've recently seen, but homes will continue to be a good long-term investment, while providing you with a place to live.
There is a strong demand right now for homes of all sizes and price ranges. The interest rates are expected to continue increasing, so many buyers are anxiously waiting for the next home to come on the market. (Maybe they are waiting for yours!) If you have been thinking of making a move, contact me right away and I'll help you get from where you are, to where you want to be!
For more information about the market, please see my "Market Conditions Reports" that are published with my Realty Times Newsletter.
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